Rouhani’s warning about the risk of regime overthrow

Morad Veissi, IR. International – Hassan Rouhani, the former President of Iran, has issued warnings about dealing with Donald Trump and the dangers arising from wrong decisions during his last periodic meeting with his government ministers. He emphasized that the Islamic Republic of Iran is in a sensitive state where just one mistake could ruin everything.

These remarks were made at a time when many analysts and political figures, especially regarding the Islamic Republic’s decisions in response to Trump’s negotiation proposals, are confused and have unanswered questions.

The Islamic Republic’s first reaction to Trump’s negotiation proposal was through Mohammadreza Aref, the Vice President, who spoke to reporters on behalf of the government, stating that Iran has no basis for negotiation with Trump. In response to Trump’s proposal to meet with Pezeshkian, Aref stated that two individuals might meet, but Iran has no intention to negotiate.

Is Trump really just looking to meet with the officials of the Islamic Republic as an individual, or does he intend to discuss Iran’s nuclear issues? The fact that officials of the Islamic Republic are making such meaningless statements could be an indication of a lack of attention to the real needs of society.

Aref, in response to Trump’s remarks about Iran’s opposition to obtaining nuclear weapons, declared that the Islamic Republic considers the production of nuclear weapons to be forbidden under the fatwa of Khamenei.

Aref’s statement does not align with the realities of international relations because many countries and international analysts, especially in America, believe that despite the fatwa by the leader of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s decisions and nuclear programs cannot guarantee against the production of nuclear weapons.

In international relations, standards and decisions are based on current realities and developments, and one cannot easily trust the statements of Islamic Republic officials. Therefore, for many countries, Aref’s words about the prohibition of nuclear weapons production have no legal or political credibility or tangible impact.

Under these circumstances, Trump’s proposal for negotiation and agreement has put the Islamic Republic in a complex situation. Instead of entering from a military threat stance, Trump offers negotiation, which places the Islamic Republic in a difficult position. Rejecting Trump’s negotiation proposal could help Trump to use this for further pressure on the Islamic Republic.

There are several reasons why Khamenei might not want to negotiate with Trump. The first reason is that in the past, Khamenei and other officials of the Islamic Republic have strongly emphasized that Trump’s maximum pressure policy against Iran would fail. If the Islamic Republic decides to negotiate, especially with Trump, it might come under widespread criticism and be seen domestically as a political defeat.

The reluctance of the Islamic Republic to negotiate with Trump also ties back to the issue of “not negotiating with Soleimani’s killer.” Many officials of the Islamic Republic, including commanders of the IRGC, know well that any negotiation with Trump, who is responsible for the death of Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander, could seriously question the legitimacy of the regime and its policies among its supporters.

But this is not the only reason. In fact, officials of the Islamic Republic believe that enmity with America can protect them. Khamenei and IRGC commanders use enmity with America as a tool to justify domestic economic and political problems. Continuing this enmity allows them to blame internal issues on a foreign enemy and maintain a semblance of legitimacy within the country.

In reality, Khamenei and many Islamic Republic officials are heavily dependent on maintaining enmity with America because it allows them to suppress internal criticism and justify their policies. Although this strategy might benefit officials in the short term, in the long run, it could severely impact the country’s economic and social condition negatively.

Moreover, this enmity with America is very profitable for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other associated institutions. Currently, the IRGC exploits sanctions and external pressures, establishing businesses both domestically and internationally. Therefore, they have no interest in negotiating with America, as it could jeopardize their economic and political interests.

However, economic pressures and public dissatisfaction within the country might eventually force leaders to change their policies. At the same time, threats from Israel and potential military actions against the Islamic Republic add to its complex and fragile situation.

Ultimately, what is dangerous for the Islamic Republic under these conditions is that it is now in a weaker position than before. Internal crises like economic problems, increasing public discontent, and military failures abroad have placed the Islamic Republic in a fragile state.

Trump and Israel are well aware of this situation and might use it as an opportunity for more pressure, or even to bring an end to the Islamic Republic.

February 6, 2025 | 3:17 pm